How the simulator visualization works

A growing body of research shows that local market conditions—such as land values, construction costs, regulatory environments, and baseline zoning capacity—shape how housing development responds to policy changes. As a result, reforms that meaningfully expand housing supply in one city may have far more limited effects in another. Understanding these differences is critical for policymakers: without accounting for local market dynamics, even well-intentioned housing policies may fail to produce the intended increases in production.

Terner Labs has developed the Terner Housing Policy Simulator (Simulator)—to help researchers and policymakers understand the implications of adopting housing policies in specific jurisdictions. It uses a complex set of models that forecasts development based on thousands of inputs. To make the analytics more broadly accessible, Terner Labs has developed a public-facing interactive visualization of the Simulator that allows users to explore how various policy scenarios and economic conditions affect housing development across specific cities, starting with Denver, CO; San Diego, CA; and Tucson, AZ. The Simulator Visualization provides a user-friendly interface, making it easy to compare how housing development responds to different policy and economic conditions.

This brief provides a high-level overview of the models that drive the Simulator, to ensure that the assumptions and limitations of the analysis are clear. More detailed methodology about the Simulator’s design and underlying assumptions are available in the accompanying methods documentation.